"This report forecasts further growth in the use of recycled and secondary aggregates, especially in higher value applications such as the production of asphalt and concrete"
John Barritt, Technical Adviser for Aggregates at WRAP
Banbury, Oxon, UK: The demand for aggregate in Scotland is forecast to grow by an average of 1.17% a year until 2018 with recycled and secondary aggregates taking a 20% market share by 2012, according to research published by WRAP (Waste & Resources Action Programme).
'The Sustainable Use of Resources for the Production of Aggregates in Scotland' was produced by Envirocentre and Halcrow under commission from WRAP. It is based on a study aimed at producing an economic model to help determine the effect of different influences on the sustainable resourcing of aggregates in Scotland.
WRAP’s Aggregates Programme is funded by Defra through the Aggregates Levy Sustainability Fund (ALSF) and by the Scottish Government to reduce the demand for primary aggregates by promoting the use of recycled and secondary aggregates.
Aggregate production
The report indicates that over 30 million tonnes of primary aggregate are sold each year in Scotland, compared to a UK total exceeding 200 million tonnes. The earlier Scottish Draft SPP4, “Mineral Working: Consultation Draft” indicated that market areas of the city regions consume the greatest volumes of minerals. Planning Authorities in those areas are advised in the draft SPP4 to maintain a 10 year supply of construction aggregates at all times, according to the research.
Waste concrete before re-processing showing components
The study identifies one coastal superquarry at Glensanda which accounted for 17% of Scottish annual sales (5 million tonnes), though the majority of this was exported from Scotland.
In addition, the 2003 figures for the reprocessing of construction, demolition and excavation waste (CDEW) show production of another 4.8 million tonnes which is around 45% of totals arisings of around 10.8 million tonnes with only 23% being landfilled. By comparison in 1989 the equivalent figures were that CDEW produced around 1.2 million tonnes representing 27% of the 4.6 million tonnes total arisings with the balance (73%) all going to landfill (see Table 5 of the report).
The development of a sensitive model was clearly a complex process as can be seen by even a glance through the report. The complexity is evidenced by the number of variables that had to be taken into account to attain a model for aggregate demand. These included:
• Gross Domestic Product
• Price of Primary Aggregates
• Price of Recycled Aggregates
• Diesel Price
• Construction Orders
• Lag Construction Orders
• Aggregates Levy, and
• Landfill Tax
Of course, even this range of variables represents a major simplification to allow a reasonable representative model to be arrived at. No doubt the model will be refined as actual figures for each year are compared to predictions.
John Barritt, Technical Adviser for Aggregates at WRAP, explains:
“This report forecasts further growth in the use of recycled and secondary aggregates, especially in higher value applications such as the production of asphalt and concrete. It’s an important aspect of promoting more sustainable construction methods that the use of recycled and secondary aggregates is optimised across all aggregate applications. The forecast that sustainable aggregates are expected to achieve a 20% market share by 2012 is therefore particularly encouraging.”
WRAP says that by analysing changes in aggregate market price, the cost of waste disposal, the availability of recyclable and secondary resources and the improved processing of primary resources, the report provides a better understanding of the construction aggregate market in Scotland.
Outputs from the modelling exercise include sensitivity for price changes for aggregates and other economic influences, as well as the range, quantity and relative market shares of the different types of aggregates supplied.
The availability of recycled aggregates is to a degree controlled by the amount of future construction and demolition work. The study found that by 2018, recycled aggregate for asphalt applications is expected to have achieved a 15% market share, compared to just 5% in 2003.
Also provision of recycled coarse aggregates for concrete applications is predicted to increase from a 3% market share in 2003 to a 13% market share in 2018.
Further information
To download a copy of the report visit www.aggregain.org.uk .
WRAP works in partnership to encourage and enable businesses and consumers to be more efficient in their use of materials and recycle more things more often. This helps to minimise landfill, reduce carbon emissions and improve our environment.
Established as a not-for-profit company in 2000, WRAP is backed by Government funding from Defra and the devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Working in seven key areas (Construction, Retail, Manufacturing, Organics, Business Growth, Behavioural Change, and Local Authority Support), WRAP’s work focuses on market development and support to drive forward recycling and materials resource efficiency within these sectors, as well as wider communications and awareness activities including the multi-media national Recycle Now campaign for England.
More information on all of WRAP’s programmes can be found at www.wrap.org.uk